January 20th, 2010
Political Limbo: Energy and Climate Legislation Facing Tough Road in Congress in 2010
Dramatic shifts in the public mood and a spate of retirements in Congress have put energy legislation in a kind of political limbo in 2010. The short-term outlook for bills addressing energy development and climate change is increasingly cloudy, and the long-term prospects are largely dependent on two major factors that are difficult to predict—economic conditions and the midterm elections.
In just the first three weeks of the year, one of the key players on energy policy, Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., has announced his retirement and the special election to replace the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., has sent shock waves through the Democratic Party.
Republican state Sen. Scott Brown’s stunning victory over Democrat Martha Coakley not only takes away the Democrats’ 60-vote majority in the Senate, it puts a chill on major initiatives in this Congress. The unexpected result in the bluest of blue states sent a strong message against the current direction in Washington and is likely to make Democrats very nervous about enacting any new big government programs like a cap-and-trade law.
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January 20th, 2010
The Oil Market Outlook for 2010: Wild or Mild?
Ten years ago, we found ourselves entering a new century and a new decade worried about the Y2K computer glitch and predictions of impending chaos in a digital world. This year, as we enter what some are calling “Y2.1K,” we are also facing a large number of unknowns on both the political and economic fronts that could have dramatic impact as the year unfolds. It seems to be true that we are emerging from a deep and troubling global financial crisis and one of the worst economic recessions since the 1930s. After the experience of the past two years, people want to be optimistic about the economic recovery, and while there are many good reasons for being so, not everything is well on the economic front.
The Economy. According to the World Bank and others, global real GDP contracted by approximately 1.5 percent in 2009. Hopefully the worst is behind us. Expectations now put global real GDP growth at around 3.2 percent in 2010, but the growth is likely to be very uneven, with the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and emerging markets rapidly establishing their dominant position in the global economy. High and rising government deficits, high unemployment and growing protectionism increase the possibility of a slower than normal economic recovery in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations.
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January 20th, 2010
Favorable Forecast for Russian Energy but Key Decisions Remain
At the start of a new year, and the close of the first decade of the already-tumultuous 21st century, this is a particularly good moment to assess Russia’s energy—past, present and future.
Much of the country’s fate over the last decade has been tied to the ascendancy of Vladimir Putin, of course. His Presidency started on Jan. 1, 2000, and lasted eight years before he “stepped down” to serve as Prime Minister in 2008. Russia’s fortunes changed dramatically during Putin’s tenure as the economy stabilized and grew significantly in the last 10 years, reflecting the rapid rise of the oil and gas markets on which so much of Russia’s economy is based. Not surprisingly given its over-dependence on energy markets, the global economic crisis and the collapse of energy prices had a disproportionate impact on Russia, causing its economy to falter and natural resources production to slow.
While the roller coaster ride is likely to continue in Russia and its energy markets, it does beg the question: What can Russian leaders do to encourage stability in its volatile oil and gas markets today and into the future?
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